“The truck job market has gone from excruciatingly tight in 2021 and the first half of 2022 to being as loose as it’s been since sometime shortly after the Great Recession,” stated Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Analysis. “With Yellow taking 20-plus-thousand drivers out of the market, it’s a start in getting supply under control.”
These shifts are evident within the total variety of job openings per unemployed employee, which declined to about 1.5 in July from greater than two in early 2022, indicating that employers’ urge for food for labor is sort of sated. The typical variety of hours labored per week has additionally absolutely receded, with extra time changing into much less important as payrolls have stuffed out.
With these hiring frenzies unwinding, employment development has narrowed to a couple industries which can be nonetheless in restoration, like leisure and hospitality, or are arrange for sustained demand due to structural components within the economic system, like training and well being care. Each of these are additionally disproportionately provided by immigrants and girls, teams which have entered the labor drive at charges that shocked many analysts.
“At some point, and you’re seeing that somewhat on the leisure and hospitality side, those legs run out,” stated Stephen Juneau, an economist with Financial institution of America Merrill Lynch. “Health services are structurally supported by aging demographics, and we’re just getting hospital funding back to normal. Once those support legs come off, what are we left with?”